Energy storage will become the fourth basic element of the new power system, promoting the change of the entire power system from "source-grid-load" to "source-grid-load-storage".
The development of the energy storage industry is driven by a variety of factors, including the integration of large-scale renewable energy into the grid; the cost of energy storage, especially the cost of batteries, has been declining in the past ten years; the reform of the power system, including the continuous improvement of the electricity price mechanism and the rise of the ancillary services market.
At present, energy storage still has the problem of single profit model and insufficient profitability. The main profit model is the arbitrage of the peak-valley price difference on the user side, and it is still difficult to make a profit by configuring energy storage on the power generation side and the grid side. In order to solve the problems that the allocation of energy storage on the power generation side and the grid side is not yet profitable, and the profitability of energy storage allocation on the user side needs to be improved, generally speaking, it is necessary to rely on the continuous liberalization of policies and the maturity of market trading mechanisms. In the European and American energy storage markets, some energy storage companies have formed a certain scale in the fields of community microgrids, virtual power plants, etc., so that participating users can not only obtain the benefits of local peak-valley price differences, but also participate in virtual power plants that interact with the power grid , to obtain more income. The continuous liberalization of policies has the following two directions: one is to expand the profit channels of energy storage, such as paid participation in the auxiliary power market, virtual power plants, etc.; the other is to allow energy storage to win more returns under the existing channels, such as Further widen the electricity price difference between industry and commerce on the user side. It is believed that the profitability of energy storage will gradually improve in the future.
The production cost of lithium-ion electrochemical energy storage has increased significantly in the past year, mainly due to the price increase of upstream raw materials for batteries. As the core of lithium-ion energy storage, batteries account for about 60% of the cost. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are used as energy storage The battery type that is more suitable in the scenario, its raw material lithium carbonate has risen from a unit price of 50,000 yuan/ton to a maximum of more than 500,000 yuan/ton in the past year. Although there are subjective, objective and accidental factors, the cost of raw materials in the upstream of the battery The impact of rising prices on the development of energy storage cannot be ignored.
Similar to photovoltaics and wind power, China, Europe, and the United States are currently the three major markets for energy storage. Therefore, the demand for installed energy storage capacity in these three major markets in 2023 largely determines the performance of the energy storage market next year.
Under the European energy crisis, the high economic efficiency of European household solar storage has been recognized by the market, and the demand for solar storage has started to explode.
In 2023, the electricity price of newly signed contracts will rise sharply. The average electricity price will be more than 40 euros/MWh, an increase of 80-120% year-on-year. It is expected that electricity prices will continue to remain high in the next 1-2 years, and the rigid demand for solar storage is clear.
Germany exempts household photovoltaic VAT and income tax, and the interest rate of household energy storage can reach 18.3%. Considering the subsidy, payback period can be shortened to 7-8 years. Italy's household energy storage subsidy policy has been withdrawn, and the favorable policy continues. Long-term independent energy is a major trend.
In 2021, the penetration rate of household storage in Europe is only 1.3%. There is broad room for growth, and the industrial, commercial and large storage markets are also growing rapidly. It is estimated that the demand for new energy storage capacity in Europe in 2023/2025 will be 30GWh/104GWh, an increase of 113% in 2023, and CAGR=93.8% in 2022-2025.
The United States is the largest large-scale energy storage market in the world. In 2022Q1-3, the installed capacity of energy storage in the United States is 3.57GW/10.67GWh, a year-on-year increase of 102%/93%. , but energy storage still maintains rapid growth.
In 2023, photovoltaic installed capacity will be on the top, and the penetration rate of superimposed energy storage will continue to increase, supporting the continued explosion of energy storage installed capacity!
The coordination between power suppliers in the United States is poor, energy storage has practical value for regulation, ancillary services are fully open, the degree of marketization is high, and the PPA electricity price is high and the storage premium is obvious.
The ITC tax credit is extended for 10 years and the credit ratio is increased to 30%-70%. For the first time, independent energy storage is included in the subsidy, which promotes a significant increase in the rate of return.
It is estimated that the demand for new energy storage capacity in the United States will be 36/111GWh in 2023/2025, an increase of 117% in 2023, and CAGR=88.5% in 2022-2025.
The domestic mandatory allocation of storage guarantees the increase of energy storage. The installed capacity in 2022Q1-3 is 0.93GW/1.91GWh, and the proportion of large-scale energy storage in the structure exceeds 93%.
According to incomplete statistics, the public bidding for energy storage has reached 41.6GWh in 2022; the shared energy storage model will spread rapidly, and capacity compensation, spot market for electricity, and time-of-use rate mechanism will be gradually implemented to increase the energy storage rate of return.
New technologies such as sodium-ion batteries, liquid flow batteries, photothermal energy storage, and gravity energy storage are being implemented and gradually confirmed at the bidding end. The energy storage safety management will be strengthened, and the penetration rate of high-pressure cascade, liquid cooling system, and Pack fire protection will gradually increase.
Taken together: the three major markets have exploded, and energy storage has ushered in a golden period of development. On the supply side, new entrants in the energy storage industry have emerged, and channels are king. The structure of battery cells is relatively concentrated.
CATL ranks first in the world in terms of shipments, and shipments of BYD, EVE and Pylon have maintained rapid growth; energy storage inverters focus on channels and brand services, and the concentration of the structure has increased. the supply guarantee capacity of Sungrow is strong in large-scale storage market is firmly in the lead, household storage inverters enjoy high growth rates, and the shipments of household storage leaders will grow several times in a row.